Cowen & Co., March 2008
Since drugs with $50 billion in 2007 U.S. sales are scheduled to lose patent/exclusivity protection in 2008-2010, the three-year period presents formidable obstacles for the pharmaceutical industry. Marketing exclusivity for several of these franchises may be extended by various means, but with a total of 70 major drugs (U.S. sales greater than $100MM annually) due to lose patent or exclusivity protection over the next five years, and several ongoing patent challenges expected to be completed in 2008-10, strong new product flow should continue to benefit the generic drug sector.
The top targets for generic drug manufacturers over the next two years include AstraZeneca’s Seroquel and Nexium, GSK’s Wellbutrin XL and Lamictal, Abbott’s Depakote ER and Prevacid, and Wyeth’s Effexor XR. A total of 23 major drugs, with combined 2007 sales of $24-$25B, could potentially lose patent and/or exclusivity protection in 2008. As in the past, however, we would expect some of these opportunities to slip into 2009-2010. Those figures slightly decrease in 2009, when 12 major drugs, with combined 2007 sales of nearly $10B, are expected to lose patent and/or exclusivity protection.
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